The Playbook....or, How to Stop This Man.

I was going to hold off on this until Senator Obama formally won the nomination, but I am now convinced that he will win Texas and Ohio this coming Tuesday so I thought I'd go ahead with it. I am going to outline what I think the republican strategy for the general election should be. I've spent some time analyzing the candidates' positions and reading hundreds of comments from voters, so here is what I think needs to be done both by Senator McCain and those of us trying to get him elected. I've taken a few ideas advanced by Newt Gingrich, Tony Blankley and others and added some of my own. I'm going to list some details along with some more general ideas on how to take on Senator Obama and how to try to win over some fence-sitters. This could go on a while so grab a drink and a notepad.

First a list of what McCain shouldn't do.

-Don't try to make the entire campaign about Vietnam. Mention it of course in passing but never let it eclipse your vision for where you want to take the country. John Kerry did this in part because he needed to remind people of his military service. John McCain doesn't have to. To put it another way, in terms of public perception John Kerry is a Vietnam vet, John McCain is the Vietnam vet. The single biggest thing that killed the Kerry candidacy is that he was unable to put forward an alternative that resonated with voters. And while people respect him for this it probably won't translate into wooing too many undecideds. McCain should stick to subtle references like the one about woodstock.

-Don't continue harping on experience. It hasn't worked for Hillary, and it won't work for McCain. Candidates with markedly more experience in government than their opponents do not have a great track record over the last 50 years or so.

-Don't try to out-inspire Obama with speeches. Obama's speeches are inspirational, but McCain's life is inspirational. He needs to talk about issue-specific accomplishments and why they matter today.

-As Newt Gingrich pointed out, the worst thing McCain can do is pander to the right. His strengths with voters are his independence from his party and willingness to take a position regardless of the consequences. Losing this advantage would be fatal. There are still 8 months to go. The stragglers will come on board. The talk radio hosts will shift their attention to how liberal Obama is and bring their people on board.

-As Tony Blankley pointed out this week, it's not enough to tell people that Obama is an orthodox liberal, you have to show them.(paraphrasing) "This is a guy who makes Bill Clinton look slow-footed and forthcoming. It needs to be a consistent, specific daily thing from now till November 4th. You can't just lob the 'liberal' hatchet at him it has to be more like a scalpel slicing a way small pieces at a time."

-Don't make the mistake of simply pointing out Senator Obama's lack of substance. His supporters will reply that he lays out all of his plans on his website (which a lot of them have never read, but I have and so should you). It will be far more effective to attack the plans themselves.

-Don't expect the press to make Obama answer the tough questions. It hasn't happened so far and may not happen at all. When it does happen, he will dance around the issues by talking in generalities so vague they will make candidate Bush look like a hard-core policy wonk.

There are more traps that need to be avoided, but a lot of them are obvious enough that the McCain campaign is smart enough not to fall into them. The general population, however, is another matter. So, in addition to the ones above these are the things McCain supporters need to avoid.

-Don't use the word "Hussein" over and over again and don't "slip" and say "Osama". At best this will take people's attention off of whatever you're talking about. At worst it will make you look like a racist (and justifiably so).

-Don't repeat ridiculous rumors. Unless the person you are conversing with is a moron who believes everything that turns up in their in-box (like the mother of a friend of mine who recently informed him that "the constitution says the president has to be a Christian" that's kind of what it says only the exact opposite) not only will this make anything else you say seem suspect, but it could have the effect of softening any legitimate scandal that may turn up. In other words if something legit turned up it could be lumped together with the "Obama as Muslim" crap.

-I would leave the women and children out of it. (this goes for any candidate) I've read some nutty stuff Michelle Obama has said lately but to harp on it, unless it is way out of left field, takes the focus off of any point you're trying to make about Barack. Bill Clinton and John Kerry were not hurt that much in '92 or '04 by having controversial wives and I would expect that to continue. A lot of people didn't like the wife, but voted for the husband anyway.

-Don't let yourself be backed into the corner of having to defend Bush. If the person you are talking to keeps coming back to Bush as though he represents all republicans be sure to draw contrasts between Bush and McCain, giving examples that are both policy related and with regard to the character of the man himself.

-Don't assume that the average Obama voter knows what he stands for in terms of policy.

There are more but you get the idea.

What Senator McCain should do:

-As I heard Newt Gingrich suggest, McCain should invite Obama to do a series of town-hall meetings with him across the country taking questions from undecided voters. Preferably these would be in cities like Detroit and others where far-left ideas have failed so radically.

-I think this is a good idea since McCain's campaign is going to be run largely on a strategy of getting him talking with average voters as much as possible (kind of a New Hampshire on steroids). One caveat I would add though is be careful to make it look like a friendly invitation. Don't act like you're begging for debates. That looks desperate. Gore did it in 2000. Hillary has done it for a month or more to no effect. Maybe begin each meeting by pointing out that you invited Senator Obama to be there (because I think there's no way in Hell he'd actually agree) and leave it at that.

-You can't beat something with nothing. Every attack on Obama's policies should be immediately followed by your own position on that issue.

-Press the advantage on foreign policy. By this I mean don't let every Iraq discussion focus on the past and whether the war was worth it. There are a lot of people like me that believe it was a major mistake, but that the important question at this moment is what happens next. The consequences of withdrawing need to be clearly spelled out. I would also point out that ending American involvement in the war is NOT the same as ending the war. I can't emphasize that one strongly enough. While on the topic McCain should expand the discussion to other foreign policy issues (Kosovo, Russia, South America, etc.) to fully press his advantage on this one.

-McCain needs to acknowledge the problems Americans are facing economically and offer solutions. The left generally has two advantages over the right in this area: 1) They tend to be better at diagnosing the problem. If you look at Obama's speeches, the amount of time he spends laying out how bad things are is a much larger problem than that proposing solutions. 2) Generally liberal solutions are much more easily grasped by the population at large. It's much easier for people to understand the benefits of massive spending than it is to understand capital gains taxes and the like.

-Don't allow Obama a foot-hold as a centrist. The country in general is a center-right country and McCain has a natural advantage there. Point out that there's one guy who talks about bi-partisanship and one who actually has a record demonstrating it.

-NEVER appear on a stage with George W. Bush. Continue appearing with centrists and if at all possible get some younger people on the stage so it doesn't look like an AARP meeting.

There are numerous others that I will point out at a later date.

Now for what we as supporters need to do.

-When dealing with many Obama supporters you shouldn't assume that they know a great deal about their candidate's positions (many don't care). I find that it works best to ask them questions. This is better than just bashing the guy because it plants doubt and doesn't cause them to just tune you out. Here's a typical example. ME: What do you like about Obama? OBAMA'S WITNESS: I just like what he stands for and the fact that he can get us past the partisan politics and move us forward. ME: Well what does he stand for? OW: Well he wants change and he wants to be more fair etc. ME: How specifically will he do that?...... You get the idea. This way you get them on the defensive. Ask the questions nicely as though you're not trying to trap them. You may hear a lot of quasi-religious language. The key there is to say something like "What do you mean by that, exactly?" In an upcoming post I will deal with these kind of responses in detail using actual quotes I have collected over the past few weeks.

-Learn to spot myths when you hear them. A lot of people think Obama is someone who doesn't "toe the party line" on every issue. Actually, he does. It's incredible how many people have projected their own beliefs onto him. Usually I ask if they can name one issue he disagrees with the party platform on. There are none (I can name 12-15 off the top of my head for McCain). He votes with the majority of his party 96.5% of the time. That means that (according to a database maintained by the Washington Post) he has voted against the majority of his party 42 times as of 2/8/08.

-On 13 of these votes I concluded that his vote was more liberal than the majority of his party.

-19 votes were procedural/housekeeping measures or issues that seem apolitical to me (e.g. motion to table amendment regarding regulations regarding regulations regarding federal hopper dredges)

-That leaves just 10 votes in 3 years where I would consider his position more conservative than the party majority! And I was generous in this regard. 2 votes were on the same bill and others I included just because they included opposition to some kind of spending regardless of on what.

- If you know a candidate's policy positions (as well as those of your candidate) and their supporters don't, this will be a major advantage and might even overcome some of the "personality cult" aspect. And it helps if you can talk up your guy at the same time.

-Don't be afraid to inject reality into the equation. Tearing down peoples' dreams and Utopian visions is actually good for them.

-Dispel the notion that all of the new spending programs will be paid for by "ending the war" (which of course we know simply means "American involvement in the war"). Senator Obama, between tax incentives and new funding for domestic programs has proposed $214 billion annually in new spending. This is roughly twice what the (direct) costs of the war in Iraq amount to annually.

This has gone way longer than I expected so I'll stop right here and give more suggestions later. And I'm sure I will be going into each issue in detail I'm sure over the next 8-months. So congratulations on surviving the longest blog post in recorded history. And oh yeah, Mac is back bitches!