Finally. My Election Day Plans, Predictions, and Observations.

This election season has gotten so bad that the other day I had two women come to my door and I was relieved that they were Jehovah's Witnesses. A co-worker today had twenty messages on her answering machine. I have enough mailers to, well, I'm not sure what one does with 500,000 sheets of paper. So without further ado, here's what's on my mind.

-My plan for tomorrow is to get up early, head to the polling place at 7:00 AM as soon as they open so I don't have to wait in line for 90 minutes like my roommate Becky did, or see a 4-hour long line wrapping around an entire shopping mall like my roommate Nick did. (I know I could have mailed it in, but it's just not the same.) Then I will come back home, read news and radio stuff until going to work at 10 AM. At 7, I will get off work and dip into my election night scotch bottle, in honor of my and Senator McCain's Scottish heritage. ( I'd drink something in honor of Obama too, but I don't know what they drink in Kenya or Kansas. Besides, I'm not a wine guy which he seems to be.) At this point I will most likely also talk Bob off of a bridge and get calls from people rubbing my face in the results (which is cool, because I totally deserve it).

-I expect Obama to win by 4 points. The electoral college will probably be a little more one-sided than this. I don't feel like doing the math, but I think McCain will hold Florida , lose Colorado, and Ohio and Virginia are toss-ups. I don't think North Carolina or Nevada will be quite as close as the others I mentioned. Obama will win Pennsylvania by a thin margin, but not razor-thin, I think 4-6.

-The exit-polls will once again show the race as being more one-sided than it really is.

-Hopefully Dan Rather will be on the air. He's always hilarious on these things.

-The Democrats will not reach 60 in the Senate, but they might as well. They'll have 58 or so, so for all intents and purposes it will be filibuster proof since it won't be hard to find 2 Republicans on most bills. I don't want either party to have a majority that big.

-If Obama loses, much will be made of the fact that he lost among white males. What will be ignored will be the fact that he will probably get a higher percentage among this demographic than Al Gore or John Kerry, two of the whitest individuals I have ever laid eyes upon. The last Dem. to win this group was (I believe) Jimmy Carter in 1976.

-McCain will take a slightly larger percentage of Democrats than Obama will of Republicans. This won't matter much because the raw number of Democrats has increased since '04 and the number of Republicans has either shrank or not grown as fast (don't remember which and don't feel like researching it).

-The big X-factor right now is that a lot of polls are showing 8-11 percent undecided. What is that? These polls were taken this weekend. Who still hasn't decided? I think McCain will take more of this slice of voters than Obama, but not enough to make up the gap.

-Look for both sides to accuse the other of either inflating or suppressing votes. Look for me not to believe either side until solid evidence emerges (or, more likely, doesn't emerge).

-Is the period supposed to go inside the parentheses or outside?

-I honestly don't believe "blood will run in the streets" in either scenario.

-Too bad about Obama's grandmother. Would have been nice if she'd have been able to see her grandson elected president. It's weird that Obama's parents are both dead with him such a young man, but McCain's mom is still alive and getting speeding tickets with him being an old geezer. Not a political thought, just one of those oddities of life.

-George Bush will be in bed by 10 PM whether the race is decided or not.

-Who the Hell let Dick Cheney out? To campaign in Wyoming? Wyoming? Honestly?

-Obama has a truly kick-ass speech ready to go, guaranteed.

-If McCain loses he'll probably be "uncensored McCain" for the rest of his life, the way Barry Goldwater was toward the end.

-Either candidate will wind up governing from the center-left.

-All day Tuesday right-wing radio will talk about the inaccuracy/ bias of polls. Left wing media will be in a celebratory mood, only to turn hateful if things don't go their way. If McCain loses, look for the right to blame his centrism and try to move the party further right with disastrous consequences the way the Democrats did between 2000 and 2004.

-I think McCain will do better among white women than Bush did, but not by much. The idea that women will be turned off to Palin do to her anti-abortion stance has been pushed in the media. This flies in the face of every study I've seen. Most show men as being 4-7% more likely to identify as "pro-choice" than women, and vice versa for the "pro-life" position. Actually now that I think about it I don't remember what percentage Bush got since the scotch is taking effect, but I think McCain will do a point or two better.

-Nobody ever went broke underestimating the youth vote. Everything tells me this year will be different, and I think that could be the difference between a 3-point squeaker and a 7-point walk in the park.

-The latest tape where Obama (apparently) says something about bankrupting anyone building a new coal plant did not come out soon enough to cost him Pennsylvania or influence Ohio. (note: I haven't heard the context yet, so this could be yet another case where he was pontificating about something only to have his words ripped completely out of context to make him sound like an evil godless communist.)

-I don't really believe he's a communist, but it's fun to joke about. If the left is allowed to call me a Nazi all the time, I should be allowed a little exaggeration of my own. It's all in good fun.

-My uncle will be torn. He always votes for whoever the UAW tells him too. They take care of him so he does what they say. He also doesn't care for black people all that much. (He's not genocidal, or a believer in segregation, just a run of the mill racist. This is a bad thing but I wanted to differentiate the degree of bigotry.) He will vote for Obama, but he won't want to be reminded about it. My dad will needle him about it, probably wearing the Obama shirt I bought him.

-My dad will be among the Democrats voting for McCain. He may be the only person in the country who believes Bush should be tried for war crimes, but is voting for McCain. As he jokingly put it, "I'm not voting for John, I'm voting for Cindy."

-Whoever wins will not do worse than Bush. I'm not going to say that they couldn't do worse, which is completely illogical, just that I don't think they will. I realize this is setting the bar incredibly low, but you have to take one step at a time.

-Anyways, it will be a historic day. Whoever wins has a big job in front of him and will need all of our prayers. Good night and may God continue to bless America (and, what the Hell, everybody else too, just this once.)