This election season has gotten so bad that the other day I had two women come to my door and I was relieved that they were Jehovah's Witnesses. A co-worker today had twenty messages on her answering machine. I have enough mailers to, well, I'm not sure what one does with 500,000 sheets of paper. So without further ado, here's what's on my mind.
-My plan for tomorrow is to get up early, head to the polling place at 7:00 AM as soon as they open so I don't have to wait in line for 90 minutes like my roommate Becky did, or see a 4-hour long line wrapping around an entire shopping mall like my roommate Nick did. (I know I could have mailed it in, but it's just not the same.) Then I will come back home, read news and radio stuff until going to work at 10 AM. At 7, I will get off work and dip into my election night scotch bottle, in honor of my and Senator McCain's Scottish heritage. ( I'd drink something in honor of Obama too, but I don't know what they drink in Kenya or Kansas. Besides, I'm not a wine guy which he seems to be.) At this point I will most likely also talk Bob off of a bridge and get calls from people rubbing my face in the results (which is cool, because I totally deserve it).
-I expect Obama to win by 4 points. The electoral college will probably be a little more one-sided than this. I don't feel like doing the math, but I think McCain will hold Florida , lose Colorado, and Ohio and Virginia are toss-ups. I don't think North Carolina or Nevada will be quite as close as the others I mentioned. Obama will win Pennsylvania by a thin margin, but not razor-thin, I think 4-6.
-The exit-polls will once again show the race as being more one-sided than it really is.
-Hopefully Dan Rather will be on the air. He's always hilarious on these things.
-The Democrats will not reach 60 in the Senate, but they might as well. They'll have 58 or so, so for all intents and purposes it will be filibuster proof since it won't be hard to find 2 Republicans on most bills. I don't want either party to have a majority that big.
-If Obama loses, much will be made of the fact that he lost among white males. What will be ignored will be the fact that he will probably get a higher percentage among this demographic than Al Gore or John Kerry, two of the whitest individuals I have ever laid eyes upon. The last Dem. to win this group was (I believe) Jimmy Carter in 1976.
-McCain will take a slightly larger percentage of Democrats than Obama will of Republicans. This won't matter much because the raw number of Democrats has increased since '04 and the number of Republicans has either shrank or not grown as fast (don't remember which and don't feel like researching it).
-The big X-factor right now is that a lot of polls are showing 8-11 percent undecided. What is that? These polls were taken this weekend. Who still hasn't decided? I think McCain will take more of this slice of voters than Obama, but not enough to make up the gap.
-Look for both sides to accuse the other of either inflating or suppressing votes. Look for me not to believe either side until solid evidence emerges (or, more likely, doesn't emerge).
-Is the period supposed to go inside the parentheses or outside?
-I honestly don't believe "blood will run in the streets" in either scenario.
-Too bad about Obama's grandmother. Would have been nice if she'd have been able to see her grandson elected president. It's weird that Obama's parents are both dead with him such a young man, but McCain's mom is still alive and getting speeding tickets with him being an old geezer. Not a political thought, just one of those oddities of life.
-George Bush will be in bed by 10 PM whether the race is decided or not.
-Who the Hell let Dick Cheney out? To campaign in Wyoming? Wyoming? Honestly?
-Obama has a truly kick-ass speech ready to go, guaranteed.
-If McCain loses he'll probably be "uncensored McCain" for the rest of his life, the way Barry Goldwater was toward the end.
-Either candidate will wind up governing from the center-left.
-All day Tuesday right-wing radio will talk about the inaccuracy/ bias of polls. Left wing media will be in a celebratory mood, only to turn hateful if things don't go their way. If McCain loses, look for the right to blame his centrism and try to move the party further right with disastrous consequences the way the Democrats did between 2000 and 2004.
-I think McCain will do better among white women than Bush did, but not by much. The idea that women will be turned off to Palin do to her anti-abortion stance has been pushed in the media. This flies in the face of every study I've seen. Most show men as being 4-7% more likely to identify as "pro-choice" than women, and vice versa for the "pro-life" position. Actually now that I think about it I don't remember what percentage Bush got since the scotch is taking effect, but I think McCain will do a point or two better.
-Nobody ever went broke underestimating the youth vote. Everything tells me this year will be different, and I think that could be the difference between a 3-point squeaker and a 7-point walk in the park.
-The latest tape where Obama (apparently) says something about bankrupting anyone building a new coal plant did not come out soon enough to cost him Pennsylvania or influence Ohio. (note: I haven't heard the context yet, so this could be yet another case where he was pontificating about something only to have his words ripped completely out of context to make him sound like an evil godless communist.)
-I don't really believe he's a communist, but it's fun to joke about. If the left is allowed to call me a Nazi all the time, I should be allowed a little exaggeration of my own. It's all in good fun.
-My uncle will be torn. He always votes for whoever the UAW tells him too. They take care of him so he does what they say. He also doesn't care for black people all that much. (He's not genocidal, or a believer in segregation, just a run of the mill racist. This is a bad thing but I wanted to differentiate the degree of bigotry.) He will vote for Obama, but he won't want to be reminded about it. My dad will needle him about it, probably wearing the Obama shirt I bought him.
-My dad will be among the Democrats voting for McCain. He may be the only person in the country who believes Bush should be tried for war crimes, but is voting for McCain. As he jokingly put it, "I'm not voting for John, I'm voting for Cindy."
-Whoever wins will not do worse than Bush. I'm not going to say that they couldn't do worse, which is completely illogical, just that I don't think they will. I realize this is setting the bar incredibly low, but you have to take one step at a time.
-Anyways, it will be a historic day. Whoever wins has a big job in front of him and will need all of our prayers. Good night and may God continue to bless America (and, what the Hell, everybody else too, just this once.)
Monday, November 3, 2008
One Question.
I was thinking lately: if I could ask each presidential candidate one question (and maybe slip them some kind of drug so I would be assured of an honest answer) what would they be? In my case each question would play to a strength of the opponent. Here they are:
-To Obama: "What is the most difficult situation you have ever been in? How did you get through it?" ( I realize this is 2 questions) Basically what I'd like to know is how would he deal with a crisis. He seems like a pretty calm guy, but most of what I've seen of him has been pre-packaged to say the least. So I'd like to know his thought process, how he's reacted to tough circumstances, etc. I'm wondering whether he's faced down adversity. Obviously, I wouldn't have to ask McCain this question. So...
-To McCain: "What is your vision for the role of the federal government over the next decade? And how is it different from that of President Bush?" (also 2 questions). This question is heavily dependent on the aforementioned drugging. I'm not even sure what kind of answer I'm looking for here, but I'm not talking about details like tax rates, etc. It's a question about his general philosophy; what would change fundamentally? This is an area he has been lacking in and it will probably doom his chances tomorrow. Again this question plays to Obama's strength which is his clear vision. This vision is of a Federal Government that is stronger and more active in every area of life. It is a vision is borne out in every policy position or proposal on his website. It is also a vision that scares the Hell out of me, since more power has never meant less corruption or greater accountability, and this is a vision that is diametrically opposed to my own. That being said, any vision beats no vision every time, especially in uncertain times like those we currently face.
Anyways those would be my questions, and as I've pointed out to people this is the one election where I will feel more pity for the winner than the loser.
-To Obama: "What is the most difficult situation you have ever been in? How did you get through it?" ( I realize this is 2 questions) Basically what I'd like to know is how would he deal with a crisis. He seems like a pretty calm guy, but most of what I've seen of him has been pre-packaged to say the least. So I'd like to know his thought process, how he's reacted to tough circumstances, etc. I'm wondering whether he's faced down adversity. Obviously, I wouldn't have to ask McCain this question. So...
-To McCain: "What is your vision for the role of the federal government over the next decade? And how is it different from that of President Bush?" (also 2 questions). This question is heavily dependent on the aforementioned drugging. I'm not even sure what kind of answer I'm looking for here, but I'm not talking about details like tax rates, etc. It's a question about his general philosophy; what would change fundamentally? This is an area he has been lacking in and it will probably doom his chances tomorrow. Again this question plays to Obama's strength which is his clear vision. This vision is of a Federal Government that is stronger and more active in every area of life. It is a vision is borne out in every policy position or proposal on his website. It is also a vision that scares the Hell out of me, since more power has never meant less corruption or greater accountability, and this is a vision that is diametrically opposed to my own. That being said, any vision beats no vision every time, especially in uncertain times like those we currently face.
Anyways those would be my questions, and as I've pointed out to people this is the one election where I will feel more pity for the winner than the loser.
My View on Colorado's Ballot Initiatives.
I'm voting NO all but one ballot measure. Here's a brief rundown of why:
-Amendment 46: Banning Affirmative Action. My vote: NO
I'd be all for getting rid of any kind of racial preferences or quotas as I think they wind up hurting those that they are intended to help. This is not, however, something I'm particularly passionate about. If this bill passes it will most likely mean a long court battle culminating in the Supremes declining to hear it, having already ruled in the University of Michigan case, and the state will have spent a lot of taxpayer money in the meantime.
-Amendment 47: "Right to Work". My vote: NO
I don't believe the state should be allowed to tell unions and businesses what kind of agreements they can or cannot enter into.
-Amendment 48: Redefine "Person" to Refer to Any Fertilized Egg. My vote: NO
In my view this goes way to far, not just banning abortion but perhaps birth control, stem cell research, etc. Also, this will likely be struck down by the courts after a long, expensive battle as being in conflict with federal law. Couple this with the fact that we are about to elect a president who is somewhere to the left of Kruschev on this issue, and clearly believes in more control by the central government (I'm going by actions here, since his actions and words do not match each other on this issue).
-Amendment 49: Allowable Paycheck Deductions. My vote: NO
This one is intended to weaken the unions of public employees. I'm against this one because it can be argued that unions are even more necessary to public employees than those in the private sector since the government often faces no competition for the services it provides. This makes it more necessary for the employees to have a strong organization on their side. It's not like firefighters, police officers, etc. can go work for a competitor (not without relocating anyway).
-Amendment 50: Raising the Stakes Limits in Colorado's Gambling Towns. My vote: YES
I view gambling and lotteries as taxes on the poor and the ignorant, for the most part. This amendment will raise the betting limit on blackjack and other table games from $5 to $100 (There are other provisions, but all minor issues). If people want to lose their money faster, I'm all for it. The extra revenue will go to community colleges and the towns themselves, so it's win-win as long as people keep going up there to lose.
-Amendment 51: Raise Sales Taxes to Help the Developmentally Disabled. My vote: NO
I feel kind of like a heartless bastard on this one. However I'm used to it because one of the more fun things about being a conservative is being treated like you are evil (Nazi, racist, imperialist, etc.). Some people can't handle this but I enjoy it, particularly because of the absurdity of the claims, i.e. checking identities is racist, less government spending is racist, every other policy I support makes me morally equivalent to past practitioners of genocide, you get the idea. The real reason I am voting against this is in favor of a county measure just like this one, and voting for both would be a larger increase than I'd favor. The county measure is a bigger increase but goes towards public safety and a new jail. As long as there are people who need to be locked up, I will support funding the facilities needed to do so.
-Amendment 52: Using Severance Tax Revenues for Highways. My vote: NO
This is a detailed measure that would shift money to highways from other areas. There are about 5 or 6 pages of details that don't hold my attention. For that reason, and because it could lead to less flexibility in spending, I'm voting no.
-Amendment 54: Limiting Contributions from Government Contractors. My vote: NO
Why single out one group of corrupt political contributors?
-Amendment 58: Severance Taxes on the Oil and Natural Gas Industry. My vote: NO
This one would raise taxes on people customers of the oil and natural gas industry. It says it will raise them on the companies, but those taxes (just like all business taxes) will be paid by the customers. Since I don't view the prices as being too low right now, I am voting no.
-Amendment 59: Education Funding and TABOR Rebates. My vote: NO
Again, I'm evil so I have to vote against education and for tax rebates. I agree TABOR has been a major disappointment, but one thing that annoys me lately is the unwillingness of some to call a tax increase a tax increase. The preferred euphemisms are "end tax breaks" ,or "close the loophole", or whatever phrase is most useful to obfuscate what is really happening. This amendment would raise taxes by not giving taxpayers rebates, but would use the money on education (P-12) spending. So, combining the tax increase factor with the bad wording of the amendment, I can't vote in favor of it.
-Amendment 46: Banning Affirmative Action. My vote: NO
I'd be all for getting rid of any kind of racial preferences or quotas as I think they wind up hurting those that they are intended to help. This is not, however, something I'm particularly passionate about. If this bill passes it will most likely mean a long court battle culminating in the Supremes declining to hear it, having already ruled in the University of Michigan case, and the state will have spent a lot of taxpayer money in the meantime.
-Amendment 47: "Right to Work". My vote: NO
I don't believe the state should be allowed to tell unions and businesses what kind of agreements they can or cannot enter into.
-Amendment 48: Redefine "Person" to Refer to Any Fertilized Egg. My vote: NO
In my view this goes way to far, not just banning abortion but perhaps birth control, stem cell research, etc. Also, this will likely be struck down by the courts after a long, expensive battle as being in conflict with federal law. Couple this with the fact that we are about to elect a president who is somewhere to the left of Kruschev on this issue, and clearly believes in more control by the central government (I'm going by actions here, since his actions and words do not match each other on this issue).
-Amendment 49: Allowable Paycheck Deductions. My vote: NO
This one is intended to weaken the unions of public employees. I'm against this one because it can be argued that unions are even more necessary to public employees than those in the private sector since the government often faces no competition for the services it provides. This makes it more necessary for the employees to have a strong organization on their side. It's not like firefighters, police officers, etc. can go work for a competitor (not without relocating anyway).
-Amendment 50: Raising the Stakes Limits in Colorado's Gambling Towns. My vote: YES
I view gambling and lotteries as taxes on the poor and the ignorant, for the most part. This amendment will raise the betting limit on blackjack and other table games from $5 to $100 (There are other provisions, but all minor issues). If people want to lose their money faster, I'm all for it. The extra revenue will go to community colleges and the towns themselves, so it's win-win as long as people keep going up there to lose.
-Amendment 51: Raise Sales Taxes to Help the Developmentally Disabled. My vote: NO
I feel kind of like a heartless bastard on this one. However I'm used to it because one of the more fun things about being a conservative is being treated like you are evil (Nazi, racist, imperialist, etc.). Some people can't handle this but I enjoy it, particularly because of the absurdity of the claims, i.e. checking identities is racist, less government spending is racist, every other policy I support makes me morally equivalent to past practitioners of genocide, you get the idea. The real reason I am voting against this is in favor of a county measure just like this one, and voting for both would be a larger increase than I'd favor. The county measure is a bigger increase but goes towards public safety and a new jail. As long as there are people who need to be locked up, I will support funding the facilities needed to do so.
-Amendment 52: Using Severance Tax Revenues for Highways. My vote: NO
This is a detailed measure that would shift money to highways from other areas. There are about 5 or 6 pages of details that don't hold my attention. For that reason, and because it could lead to less flexibility in spending, I'm voting no.
-Amendment 54: Limiting Contributions from Government Contractors. My vote: NO
Why single out one group of corrupt political contributors?
-Amendment 58: Severance Taxes on the Oil and Natural Gas Industry. My vote: NO
This one would raise taxes on people customers of the oil and natural gas industry. It says it will raise them on the companies, but those taxes (just like all business taxes) will be paid by the customers. Since I don't view the prices as being too low right now, I am voting no.
-Amendment 59: Education Funding and TABOR Rebates. My vote: NO
Again, I'm evil so I have to vote against education and for tax rebates. I agree TABOR has been a major disappointment, but one thing that annoys me lately is the unwillingness of some to call a tax increase a tax increase. The preferred euphemisms are "end tax breaks" ,or "close the loophole", or whatever phrase is most useful to obfuscate what is really happening. This amendment would raise taxes by not giving taxpayers rebates, but would use the money on education (P-12) spending. So, combining the tax increase factor with the bad wording of the amendment, I can't vote in favor of it.
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